BSBMKG507 Interpret Market Trends And Developments

Assessment Materials

BSBMKG507 Interpret market trends and developments

To achieve competency in this unit you must complete the following assessment items. All tasks must be submitted together. Tick the boxes to show that each task is attached.

• Task 1. Theory Exam
• Task 2. Case Study
• Task 3. Market Research Report

Task 1 Theory exam

Assessment Instructions

Task 1 is about using statistical analysis of market trends and developments in order to determine their potential impact on the organisation. The statistical analysis will allow you to undergo qualitative analysis of comparative market information to evaluate organisational performance.

You must successfully answer all of the following questions. Click in the space provided and type your answer.

Central tendency

In technical terms, central tendency refers to the ‘typical’ or ‘central’ value of a set of values or data set. Measures of central tendency can be used to provide a single figure that gives you a quick, representative piece of information from a body of data. There are several varying ways of measuring this.

1. What are the three (3) central tendency measurement terms?

1. The mean
2. The median
3. The mode

Calculating the mean age from a data set

2. Calculate the mean age of the customers from the following data set.

Data set: There are 4 customers, aged 34, 35, 36 and 39.

Please show your calculations.

(34+35+36+39)/4=36

The mean is 36.

3. A group of music store customers buy a music DVD.

Their ages are as follows: 18, 19, 21, 20, 19, 18, 20, 18, 19.

1. Calculate the mean age of this group of customers.

   Please show your calculations.

   (18+19+21+20+19+18+20+18+19)/9=19.1

   The mean is 19.

2. What would happen if one more customer, aged 79, buys the DVD as a gift for his granddaughter? How would you calculate the new mean age of the group of customers now?

   Please show your calculations.

   (18+19+21+20+19+18+20+18+19+79)/10=25.1

   The mean is 25.

3. If you want to identify your target market for DVD’s, in this case study, would it be a mistake to consider the mean as representative of your typical customers’ age? YES or NO? Please explain why.

   It would be mistake because the range of scores in the data set is large. (in this case 60 years gap.)

4. What is ‘Outliers’? Please write a definition of “Outliers” in your own words.

If the one or two scores are very different from other scores. These extreme scores are ‘Outliers’.

Calculating the mean spending

5. Ten customers spend the following amounts in a music store:

$145    $50      $88      $75      $120    $115    $90      $68      $95      $105

How would you calculate the mean (average) spend for this group of customers?

Please show your calculations.

(145+50+88+75+120+115+90+68+95+105)/10=95

The mean is $95.00

Calculating the median

6. What is “the median”? Please write a definition of the central tendency measure “the median” using your own words.

Place the numbers you are given in value order and find the middle number. That number is ‘the median’.

7. Calculate the median of the following data sets.

Please show your calculations.

1. First data set: 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, 26, 32, 41, 54.

   9+1/2=5

   So the fifth number from left or right is the median which is 18.

2. Second data set: 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, 26, 32, 41, 54, 1000.

   (10/2)+(10/2+1)/2=5+6/2

   Therefore the median number would be determined by counting five and six numbers from either end of the data set.

   (18+26)/2=22

   The median number would therefore be 22.

3. What conclusions can you draw from the above median data sets scenario?

   We can see that the median is more resistant to outliers. For this reason, real estate figures for the sale price of houses in a region are often quoted as median figures.

   Calculating the mode

8. Calculating the mode

1. What is “the mode”? Please write a definition of the central tendency measure ‘the mode’?

   The mode is the score or category that has the greatest frequency in the data set.

2. Can you think of an original way to adapt the following data set to calculate the mode?

   How would you calculate the mode?

   Data set: Consider the number of items bought by shoppers in a clothing store in one day:

   2 items were bought 15 times, 5 items were bought 8 times, 1 item was bought 10 times, 10 items were bought once, 3 items were bought 20 times, 4 items were bought 15 times and 7 items were bought 3 times.

   Please show your calculations.

   The mode is 3 items, since 3 items occurs the most times (20) in the frequency distribution of the data set.

3. How would you convert data (from b. above) in a frequency table. Describe what you could do. Present it in another visual format.

   items	frequency
   1 items	10
   2 items	15
   3 items	20
   4 items	15
   5 items	8
   7 items	3
   10 items	1

   
4. Explain the advantages of displaying your data as a histogram.

   A histogram helps us easily spot highest frequency.

Central tendency measures

9. Central tendency measures

A group of 50 customers had the following ages:

18 24 36 18 61 44 33 36 52 27

19 41 50 26 43 27 40 33 39 46

33 45 38 18 41 54 51 47 60 63

34 20 33 27 30 33 28 19 46 18

22 26 29 37 42 20 46 20 33 60

From this data, calculate the: a. Mode, b. Mean and c. Median ages of the customers.

Show your calculations.

1. What is the Mode?

   18x4 19x2 20x3 22x1 24x1 26x2 27x3 28x1 29x1 30x1 33x6 34x1 36x2 37x1 38x1 39x1 40x1 41x2 42x1 43x1 44x1 45x1 46x3 47x1 50x1 51x1 52x1 54x1 60x2 61x1 63x1

   The mode is age 33, since age 33 occurs the most times (6) in the frequency distribution of the data set.

2. What is the Mean?

   (18+24+36+18+ 61+ 44+ 33+ 36+ 52+ 27+19 +41+ 50+ 26+ 43+ 27+ 40+ 33+ 39+ 46+33+ 45+ 38+ 18+ 41+ 54+ 51+ 47+ 60+ 63+34 +20+ 33+ 27+ 30+ 33+ 28+ 19+ 46+ 18+22+26+ 29+ 37+ 42+ 20+ 46+ 20+ 33 +60)/50=35.72 

   The mean is 36.

3. What is the Median?

   18 19 20 22 24 26 27 28 29 30 33 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 50 51 52 54 60 61 63

   (31+1)/2=16

   16^th number from left or right is the median.

   The median is 39.

Dispersion methods

10. Dispersion methods

1. Calculate the “range” of the following data set.

   The data scores are as follows: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 20

   Please show your calculations.

   20-2=18

   The range of data scores is 18.

2. Calculate the range a 2^nd time – this time without the number 20. What is the range this time?

   8-2=6

   The range of data scores is 6.

3. What is an advantage and a disadvantage of using the range as a measure of dispersion?

   Advantage Easy to compute.

   Disadvantage Range is sensitive to outliers in the data. Range only considers the smallest and largest data elements in the set.

Calculating the interquartile range

11. Calculating the interquartile range

1. What does the interquartile range measure?

   The interquartile range examines the middle 50% of the data and is the distance between the first quartile and the third quartile.

2. How would you calculate the interquartile range of data scores for the following data set: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 20

Please show your calculations.

2            3            4             6            8             20

             Q1                         Q2 (Median)      Q3

Q2=(4+6)/2=5

Q1=3     Q2=5     Q3=8

8-3=5

The interquartile range of data scores is 5

Task 2 Case Study

Assessment Instructions

Task 2 is about using statistical analysis of market trends and developments in order to determine their potential impact on the organisation. The statistical analysis will allow you to undergo qualitative analysis of comparative market information to evaluate organisational performance.

You must read and interpret the case study data in order to successfully answer all questions, and to research and analyse evidence for inclusion the final Market Research Report. Click in the space provided and type your answer for each question.

Case study scenario: Seaside Caravan Parks

Imagine you are the Marketing Manager for Seaside Caravan Parks. Seaside Caravan Parks have 6 sites located throughout Australia; they are a franchise operation with possible potential to expand internationally. Jane and John Smith are the new franchise owners of the Seaside Caravan Park at Wollongong NSW, they have contacted you, to requested that you develop a Market Research Report for them because they need to know the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods for 2013 and 2014.

Critical Evidence: You are required to evidence that you can apply a range of statistical techniques to analyse market trends and developments, current marketing performance and comparative market information; and document your analysis of market data including visual presentations of your findings.

Use the information in the chart below and follow the Research Procedures to assist you to develop your Market Research Report for the new franchise owners.

Research procedures

Note: You may discuss the Wollongong Seaside Caravan Park case study during className. However, please note that completion of questions below is an individual activity.

1. What information can you find and analyse from the existing data?

• Park capacity will be going up in 2013.
• Existing bookings are increasing annually by 10.
• Average 70 Sites booked by drive–in visitors for the period 26 December till 2 January.
• Booking from couples is highest number of visiting.
• Booking from individuals is lowest number of visiting.

2. What information can you forecast for 2013?

• Existing bookings are going to increase.

3. Considering the increased number of sites available in 2013 onwards…

1. How would the need for the increase in sites have been determined?

   Due to the number of existing booking is increasing between 2009 and 2012.

2. What type of extra facilities would the park need to implement to cater for the increased sites; and how would you determine these needs?

   We can determine by numbers of booking from families, couples and individuals.

   Extra facilities for families and individuals need to be built more.

3. What information would have enabled these needs to be determined?

   Interview and observation note, written documents and reports.

4. How would you obtain qualitative primary data to identify over-performing and under-performing facilities and services to be considered for redevelopment or withdrawal at Seaside Caravan Parks? And who would you involve in this research process?

Primary research is conducted by you or your organisation that generates results directly from the people you are researching. This means the data is not available anywhere else and can only be obtained by communicating with people or making direct observations about people and situations. Qualitative primary data includes focus group data, one-to-one interview data and projective technique data.

5. A competitor has opened in close proximity to the Wollongong Seaside Caravan Park.

Being an innovative and progressive company, Seaside Caravan Parks has constantly monitored and analysed its statistical data. Why would you monitor and analyse statistical data? How would you utilise this data?

Statistical data is providing it with an advantage over the new competitor, as they have a wealth of readily available information. This enables them to track the impact of the competitor on their business performance. They will be utilising their existing database to aggressively market to their existing customers.

Forecasting techniques

6. Forecasting techniques

Demonstrate use of the least squares method. Using the time series data from the Wollongong Seaside Caravan Park, forecast the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2013 and 2014.

Show your calculations. Create a series of MS excel spreadsheets to show your formulas and methods of calculating the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2013 and 2014 using the least squares method.

𝒚 = 𝒂 + 𝒃 𝑥 𝑦 = the forecast sales (the dependent variable the y axis) 𝑥 = the year for which you are forecasting the sales (the independent variable: time) 𝑎= the value of sales when x = 0 𝑏= gradient (or slope) of the line year Sites booked by drive–in visitors for the period 26 December till 2 January (𝒚) Coded time(𝑥) 𝑥 𝒚 2009 65 1 65 1 2010 70 2 140 4 2011 76 3 228 9 2012 70 4 280 16 Total (Σ) 281 10 713 30 Mean 70.25 2.5 713-(4x2.5x70.25)/30-(4x6.25)=10.5/5=2.1 b(the slope of the line)=2.1 𝑎= the value of sales when x = 0 𝑎=70.5-(2.1x2.5)=65.25 𝒚 = 𝒂 + 𝒃 𝑥=65.25+(2.1x5)=75.75 The estimated the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2013 is approximately 76. 𝒚 = 𝒂 + 𝒃 𝑥=65.25+(2.1x6)=77.85 The estimated the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2014 is approximately 78.

7. Other forecasting techniques

1. What are 4 other forecasting techniques Seaside Caravan Parks could utilise?
   1. Delphi techniques
   2. Projection
   3. Model building
   4. Scenario planning
2. Choose two (2) of these other forecasting techniques. How you would utilise these forecasting techniques to identify existing and emerging market trends at Seaside Caravan Parks.
   1. Delphi techniques
      • The Delphi Method seeks to achieve a consensus among group members through a series of questionnaires.
      • The series of questionnaires sent either by email or via computerized systems, to a pre-selected group of experts.
      • Nobody ‘loses face’ because the questionnaires are answered anonymously and individually by each member of the group.
      • The answers are summarized and sent back to the group members along with the next questionnaire.
   2. Scenario planning7

8. How might you communicate the following to a small business like Seaside Caravan Parks:

• The importance of forecasting and
• How it affects their organization

What would you say?

Sales forecasting is a science in the sense that you can make assumptions about trends based on qualitative and quantitative data, then monitor and test those assumptions with empirical data. It is an art in the sense that you need to interpret both raw data and the information-rich responses you can gather from study participants. This interpretation requires acute sensitivity to people’s motivations and an intimate knowledge of the business and the market that is very difficult to quantify. Understanding trends and market behaviour can provide your organisation with valuable insight into sales and overall performance. Forecasting techniques ensure reliable information is available for marketing managers to make informed decisions about the future direction of the business.

Report on Market data

It is important to ensure that your audience is able to easily understand the results of your analysis and see the significance. Achieving this objective in any form of presentation will require effective use of visuals and clear explanation of data to make your message clear.

9. Prepare, plot and interpret data

1. How could you visually present statistical data to Seaside Caravan Parks? Can you compile a list of several options? Write the names of these options.

   Bar chart, pie chart, line charts, multiple line graphs, area chart and histograms.

2. From your list of options, prepare a minimum of two (2) graphic visuals presenting your Seaside Caravan Parks statistical data forecasting the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2013 and 2014.
3. Now you need to explain the results and your analysis – not just repeat your findings.Write a summative report with your interpretation of the data, which you could give to relevant personnel to study and discuss.

   The process of identifying trends is important for both long-term and short-term business forecasting. There is a continuous increase of 0.3% yearly in the existing bookings. Also through the least squares method, we can forecast the number of booking during Christmas period. The estimated the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2013 is approximately 76, in 2014 is approximately 78. Despite number of booking in Christmas period dropping in 20011 and 2012, the overall trend is for sales to increase with time. It is a promising business as we plan to increase park capacity from 400 to 450 due to number of booking is increasing. Through analysis numbers of booking from couples and individuals will increase while numbers of booking from families are steady. We can analyse and research our market and aim one of our target markets and put more facilities for them.

10. How would you assess your visual presentation for potential problems, and take any necessary corrective action?

Check to ensure that all graphics are clear. If the visuals are being included in a black and white print-out, ensure that the colours are distinct. Graphs, charts and photographs may have looked acceptable when you selected them, however, resizing or transferring them to a different media may reduce the quality. Check that visuals are labelled correctly. Don’t assume that the labels are correct, especially in relation to graphs and charts of statistical data. Some data is similar and you should ensure that the chart being used shows the data you are discussing. Check that scales used in your graphs and charts show what you intend and that they do not distort or hide information. A chart showing average population growth over a 1000year timeline may show a fairly consistent increase over time, whereas a scale showing population growth over a ten year period may appear to indicate a different result. Adjust the scale of your graphs and charts to highlight information appropriately. Ensure that your charts and graphs show all data collected. A proper analysis of data can only occur if all results are included. Leaving out anomalous data, such as extreme outliers, may make your conclusions or recommendations easier, but should be undertaken with care. Generally, you should instead include all data and then explain any anomalies, or provide a both a graph including the anomalies and one without, so that the audience can make an informed decision. Check that your visual data does not contradict what is included in the text, or contradict other visual representations, unless this is done deliberately and explained in the supporting text. Do not assume that everyone will understand the visual representations. Ensure they are labelled. Other table tips:- tables should be numbered in sequence as they appear in the document or presentation, for example, ‘Table 1: Name of Table’- tables should be simple and concise including only summative data.

11. Create an action plan outlining issues to follow up on with the new franchisees.

[NB this information should be included in the recommendations section of your Market Research Report.]

• No modifications suggested for the individual booking. Consultants should maintain their rapport with the customers by continuously providing services in a steady level. They can reinforce their services as needed bot avoid drop and instabilities in the quality of their provisions.
• Facilities for couples may maintain their services as is and no further expansions suggested. Since number of booking by couples is 60% of bookings on Christmas period.
• Suggests extending facilities for families. Through our forecast, there is possibility that number of booking from families is fixed and steady. To increase the number of booking from families it is necessary to increase facilities for them.
• Provide advertisements and offers suitable for special occasions and for Christmas season. New offers for families since customers are looking for remarkable variations.
• May market the business by posting ads on newspapers, magazines and internet, utilizing radio announcements, distributing flyer, print-ads and brochures. Publicize offers, promotions and discounts on a regular basis.
• May also take advantage of disseminating information via email and text messaging. Social media is another productive approach to expand the coverage of target market.

12. Compile a list of the relevant legislation that may affect aspects of the Seaside Caravan Parks business operations.

How would you monitor key provisions of relevant legislation from all forms of government, codes of practice and national standards that may affect aspects of your business operations?

[NB this information should be included in the appendix of your Market Research Report.]

• Privacy Act 1988
• Competition and Consumer Act 2010
• Age Discrimination Act 2004
• Disability Discrimination Act 1992
• Racial Discrimination Act 1975
• Sex Discrimination Act 1984

How to Monitor…

Provide information to the work team about policies and legislation. Communicate to workplace parties the importance of effective consultation mechanisms in managing policies and legislation.

Task 3 Market Research Report

You must now develop your Market Research Report for Jane & John Smith at the Seaside Caravan Park in Wollongong NSW. Elaborate on your research results and your market analysis at Q1-Q12 from the above Research Procedures. Follow the Market Research Report format and refer to the directives in the Student workbook at pages 88 & 89 for help completing your report.

[The Market Research Report template is supplied on the following page]

PLEASE PASTE YOUR ASSESSMENT TASK 3 (Market Research Report) BELOW THIS LINE

You can use the template provided below.

Franchise owners: Jane and John Smith

Project Manager: Yuri Kang

Date: 10/10/2012

Executive Summary

We have a new business ahead us. Before start new business, it is very important know about every single things. Most important thing is ‘Is this business has a vision, future and where would the business be in the future?’ Our team had a good analysis about forecast about future of Seaside Caravan Park based on information that you gave. We will suggest you few method to make your business more strong and steady.

We have prepared visual chart to give you more understanding and ideas.

Introduction

Jane and John are starting a new business as a seaside caravan park located in Wollongong.

The services they mainly offer include facilities for customer and site maintenance.

Before starts their business, they want to find out what would their sales be on Christmas season year 2013 and 2014 based on booking numbers for few years. The number of site will be extended from 400 to 450 And most of bookings are from families and couples.

Terms of Reference

Subject of study: Forecast booking numbers for Seaside Caravan Park in Christmas season, Wollongong.

Date: 10/10/2012

Project Period: 2/2013-1/2014

Name and Address of Organisation: Yuri Kang xxx beatus st. Unanderra N.S.W. 2526

Client: Jane and John Smith

Methodology

• Gather all relevant information about the business, including the booking number and business areas.
• Determine the important customers and seasons of the business and create questions according to that.
• Make research objectives and hypothesis.
• Design the analyse tool (the least square method) and coordinate well with the clients.
• Conduct the analyse.
• Gather results of forecast numbers.
• Analyse results collected and present to the business owners.
• Decide what kind of advertisement would be affective.
• The whole process will take 12 months.

Results

• Park Capacity will increase from 400 to 450 in 2013.
• There is a continuous increase of 0.3% yearly in the existing bookings.
• The estimated the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2013 is approximately 76, in 2014 is approximately 78.
• Most of bookings on Christmas period from couples.
• The bookings been made on Christmas season is approximately 20% of existing bookings.

Discussion and analysis

The process of identifying trends is important for both long-term and short-term business forecasting. There is a continuous increase of 0.3% yearly in the existing bookings. Also through the least squares method, we can forecast the number of booking during Christmas period. The estimated the number of drive-in visitors to expect over the peak Christmas periods in 2013 is approximately 76, in 2014 is approximately 78. Despite number of booking in Christmas period dropping in 20011 and 2012, the overall trend is for sales to increase with time. It is a promising business as we plan to increase park capacity from 400 to 450 due to number of booking is increasing. Through analysis numbers of booking from couples and individuals will increase while numbers of booking from families are steady. We can analyse and research our market and aim one of our target markets and put more facilities for them.

Conclusions

The performance data of Seaside Caravan Park suggests that booking on Christmas season is continuously rising. Most of the bookings made from couples. Also the number of bookings from families is lot higher then bookings made from individuals. However from our forecast, the number will be fixed if we don’t make any changes on the business. Christmas season bookings have maintained its steady contribution to the income of their business. As the park capacity will be increase from 400 to 450 due to the existing booking numbers are increasing annually. The management should focus reinforcing and boosting their facilities for families and couples since it makes more earnings. Moreover, advertisement will helpful for more bookings.

Recommendations

• No modifications suggested for the individual booking. Consultants should maintain their rapport with the customers by continuously providing services in a steady level. They can reinforce their services as needed bot avoid drop and instabilities in the quality of their provisions.
• Facilities for couples may maintain their services as is and no further expansions suggested. Since number of booking by couples is 60% of bookings on Christmas period.
• Suggests extending facilities for families. Through our forecast, there is possibility that number of booking from families is fixed and steady. To increase the number of booking from families it is necessary to increase facilities for them.
• Provide advertisements and offers suitable for special occasions and for Christmas season. New offers for families since customers are looking for remarkable variations.
• May market the business by posting ads on newspapers, magazines and internet, utilizing radio announcements, distributing flyer, print-ads and brochures. Publicize offers, promotions and discounts on a regular basis.
• May also take advantage of disseminating information via email and text messaging. Social media is another productive approach to expand the coverage of target market.

Appendices

• Privacy Act 1988
• Competition and Consumer Act 2010
• Age Discrimination Act 2004
• Disability Discrimination Act 1992
• Racial Discrimination Act 1975
• Sex Discrimination Act 1984

*To maintain our business on policies and legislation we aregoing to provide information to the work team about policies and legislation. Communicate to workplace parties the importance of effective consultation mechanisms in managing policies and legislation.