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One technique modify the affirms and denies weights reflect the uncertainty

/* Rule 2.7 */
IF temperature high AND NOT(water level low) THEN pressure high

A Bayesian version of this rule might be:

• the evidence could be an assertion generated by another uncertain rule, and which therefore has a probability associated with it;
• the evidence may be in the form of data which are not totally reliable, such as the output from a sensor.

In terms of probabilities, we wish to calculate P(H|E), where E is uncertain. We can handle this problem by assuming that E was asserted by another rule whose evidence was B, where B is certain (has probability 1). Given the evidence B, the probability of E is P(E|B). Our problem then becomes one of calculating P(H|B). An expression for this has been derived by Duda et al. [3]:


1 D

Probability of
evidence E, P(E)


D' = [2(1 – D) � P(E)] + D (3.17)

3.2.6 Combining evidence

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one technique modify the affirms and denies weight
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